Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.663211 0.764894 0.873723 0.998496 1.137217 1.286332 1.458352
2025-02-16 0.471906 0.600647 0.749123 0.931561 1.148144 1.395475 1.697607
2025-02-23 0.330105 0.465549 0.634117 0.855862 1.136104 1.474560 1.909885
2025-03-02 0.225472 0.355068 0.529809 0.776169 1.107281 1.529168 2.098542
2025-03-09 0.165371 0.290708 0.473424 0.748388 1.139300 1.661659 2.396716
2025-03-16 0.119451 0.235917 0.419960 0.715560 1.159345 1.779670 2.687074
2025-03-23 0.094117 0.207336 0.399948 0.727691 1.243400 1.992166 3.123168
2025-03-30 0.066884 0.167480 0.353675 0.691384 1.250369 2.095143 3.414352
2025-04-06 0.049368 0.140419 0.323258 0.675277 1.285442 2.241116 3.777753
2025-04-13 0.035638 0.116245 0.292472 0.652838 1.306476 2.366191 4.118140
2025-04-20 0.027812 0.102815 0.279633 0.660449 1.378036 2.575076 4.599402
2025-04-27 0.021081 0.089236 0.263152 0.658058 1.431096 2.757289 5.049944
2025-05-04 0.015631 0.076941 0.247313 0.656164 1.488301 2.956740 5.551529
2025-05-11 0.011597 0.066805 0.233950 0.657266 1.551483 3.171874 6.094051
2025-05-18 0.007873 0.054927 0.212382 0.636232 1.569180 3.309297 6.516941
2025-05-25 0.004892 0.043070 0.186466 0.599585 1.550466 3.379594 6.830221
2025-06-01 0.003414 0.036883 0.175320 0.596601 1.601036 3.580000 7.380181
2025-06-08 0.002234 0.030660 0.161504 0.583793 1.628623 3.738925 7.865898
2025-06-15 0.001715 0.028288 0.160504 0.605381 1.734845 4.055370 8.650256
2025-06-22 0.001018 0.022757 0.144846 0.582343 1.736363 4.167404 9.068922
2025-06-29 0.000637 0.019144 0.135148 0.574470 1.772043 4.348968 9.624209
2025-07-06 0.000365 0.015663 0.123975 0.559313 1.787915 4.490739 10.111288
2025-07-13 0.000244 0.014025 0.120902 0.569502 1.867366 4.767633 10.865719